A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has got something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
